Use of prior knowledge to inform restoration projects in estuaries of GOM

July 28, 2017

# randomize author order
aut <- c('Marcus Beck', 'Kirsten Dorans', 'Jessica Renee Henkel', 'Kathryn Ireland', 'Ed Sherwood', 'Patricia Varela') %>% 
  sample %>% 
  paste(collapse = ', ')

cat('By', aut)

By Kathryn Ireland, Patricia Varela, Jessica Renee Henkel, Ed Sherwood, Marcus Beck, Kirsten Dorans

Deepwater Horizon Settlement Agreement

Drawing

Over $10B in Potential Restoration Activities

Drawing

Cumulative Effects of Restoration Activities?

Drawing

  • Vision to make it portable
  • Why Bayesian networks

Benefits

  • A general and flexible framework that can be applied to unique locations and is not limited by data availability
  • Explicit quantification of uncertainty and model updates with new data
  • More focused restoration towards specific regional issues
  • Improved ability to predict outcomes of proposed restoration projects

Tampa Bay was gross

Drawing

Drawing

Tampa Bay is not as gross

Tampa Bay is not as gross

Drawing

But how much less gross??

But how much less gross??

Ed

  • Tampa Bay Background

Tampa Bay Data Sources

  • Rich WQ Monitoring Datatset (1974-)
    • Chlorophyll, salinity, dissolved oxygen, etc.
    • Depth-integrated
    • QAQC
  • Time series, monthly step - ~500 obs. per site

Tampa Bay Restoration Sites

  • Restoration sites in Tampa Bay, watershed
    • Habitat Establishment
    • Habitat Enhancement
    • Habitat Protection
    • Stormwater Controls
    • Point Source Controls
  • 571 projects, 1971 - 2016

Workflow

Kirsten/Katie

  • Model diagram
  • Merging restoration diagram

Data plyring

  • Can we identify a change in water quality from restoration?
  • What data do we have?
  • Can we plyr the data to identify a signal?
  • Can we plyr the data as input to a BN?

Data plyring

Water quality stations and restoration sites

  • Can we plyr the data to identify a signal?
  • How can continuous water quality be linked to discrete restoration activites?

Data plyring

Water quality stations and restoration sites

  • Can we plyr the data to identify a signal?
  • How can continuous water quality be linked to discrete restoration activites?
  • Consider an effect of site type?

Data plyring

Water quality stations and restoration sites

  • Can we plyr the data to identify a signal?
  • How can continuous water quality be linked to discrete restoration activites?
  • Consider an effect of site type?
  • Consider distance of sites from water quality stations?

Data plyring

Water quality stations and restoration sites

  • Can we plyr the data to identify a signal?
  • How can continuous water quality be linked to discrete restoration activites?
  • Consider an effect of site type?
  • Consider distance of sites from water quality stations?
  • Consider a cumulative effect?

Data plyring

Water quality stations and restoration sites

  • Can we plyr the data to identify a signal?
  • How can continuous water quality be linked to discrete restoration activites?
  • Consider an effect of site type?
  • Consider distance of sites from water quality stations?
  • Consider a cumulative effect?

Bayesian Network

Patricia

  • Specifics of BN
  • Outcomes/interpretation/applications

Conclusion

  • Next steps (all)